At MCG, in the early part of India’s game against South Africa last week, the Indian fans were deafeningly audible but also distinctly edgy. Rohit Sharma was run out in the 3rd over of the game and Dale Steyn had a grin on his face. He first made Shikhar Dhawan almost glove a short ball and later just missed Virat Kohli’s bat with a length delivery. Now he was swaggering to the fence with the confidence of a bowler with figures of 4-1-10-0 on the scoreboard.

That’s when the game turned. In a bizarre bowling change Steyn would get replaced by part-timer JP Duminy. Kohli and Dhawan would exhale, they would settle and be better placed to face Steyn who would return after a 16-over break.

The cautious use of the team’s chief wicket-taker hurt SA. Steyn would finish at 10-1-55-0-1, India 307. AB de Villiers, the South African skipper, after the game, all but concedes that he got the shuffle wrong. “It depends on the situation of the game. I just go on my gut feel. I could sit here and say that maybe my gut feel was wrong tonight. May be not. That’s just the way I felt. The game, the rhythm of the game, that’s the way I read the situation and it probably didn’t pay off today.”

Actually, on most days it hasn’t worked in this World Cup. Conservative captains have paid the price for showing reluctance in using the bowler with the best strike rate. The boundary guarded by just 4 fielders for most part of the game, teams with wickets in hand have regularly posted big totals. Dot balls are important but not as precious as wickets. Economical bowlers are good but expensive wicket-takers are better.

The 300 plus formula

Former Pakistan pacer and now UAE coach Aaqib Javed has a formula. He says in case a team has lost just 4 wickets till the 40th over, it is most likely to cross 300. He suggests that in case a new bowler is doing well and beating the batsmen, he should get an extended spell. “Not just that, captains should forget the old theory that they should exhaust the overs of their part-timer if a wicket falls. Now you throw the ball to the strike bowler,” he says.

It’s something that NZ’s captain Brendon McCullum has done well in recent times. His first urge is to attack, and so is his second instinct. In the key game against Australia on Saturday at Eden Park, he threw everything behind this all-out attack strategy. By the 28th over, McCullum had bowled out Vettori and Boult and Southee had just three overs left. There were less-courageous escape routes in between where he could have brought on his fifth bowler, or even Adam Milne, a rookie who can rock many a batting line-up, but McCullum didn’t. He was after wickets, the only sure way to stop runs and beat field restrictions that can suffocate any captain.

He didn’t see the middle overs after Australia lost a few wickets as an invitation to use-up his fifth bowler quota. He knew the pressure would ease off and Australia, with its lengthy batting line-up, can pull off a turn-around. And so he attacked. At the end of 17th over, Australia were 96 for 4, limping a touch after a clutch of wickets, and it’s the time that many captains usually would have thought about squeezing in a few overs from the lesser bowlers. McCullum instead got back Boult who knocked out Maxwell and Mitchell Marsh in the first over of his second spell and soon, dismissed Michael Clarke as well. Instead of Australia being say 150 for 5 by the 30th over, they were tottering at 104 for 7 in the 20th.

It’s easy to err on side of caution and conventional wisdom and make mistakes. Like how even the experienced captain Michael Clarke did during the New Zealand’s chase. At the end of the 14th over, Mitchell Starc had bowled 6 overs for three wickets when he was taken off. New Zealand were wobbling at 90 for 4 but Clarke turned to Mitchell Johnson. Starc made it clear later that he wanted to bowl on, and said as much to his captain, but the decision was made.

Wrong ’un

Johnson was looted for 16 runs in that over, which turned out to be crucial in the end. It wasn’t a bad decision of course as Johnson is a strike bowler, but it wasn’t wise to stop Starc, who was running hot then, and especially considering New Zealand weren’t chasing that many. He brought back Starc after a few overs and though he threatened to pull off a heist, New Zealand prevailed. Just goes to show that now more than ever attack could be the best form of defense.